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	<description>Management, luck and decision making</description>
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		<title>Managing in the fog</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2008/03/28/managing-in-the-fog/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2008/03/28/managing-in-the-fog/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:22:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Decision traps]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2008/03/28/managing-in-the-fog/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Management is easy. At least that is the promise of the thousands of management books published every year. Every author has a method which, if diligently followed, will help the time stressed manager find the right path to strategic nirvana, higher profits, transformational leadership. The future is a lot more unpredictable than we have been [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=91&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>The logic of business</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/the-logic-of-business/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/the-logic-of-business/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 14:03:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About poker and business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/the-logic-of-business/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The best poker players do two things better than the rest of us: They lose less money on weak hands – they don’t get tempted to fritter away small stakes on poor hands with only a small chance of success. They make more money when they have good hands &#8211; they will risk more to [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=71&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>The logic of poker</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/the-logic-of-poker-and-business/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/the-logic-of-poker-and-business/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 14:02:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[About poker and business]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/the-logic-of-poker-and-business/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The logic of poker Poker players have been assessing whether the cost of meeting a bet is justified since the game was invented. Poker is a blend of skill and chance. In the short run chance can make fools of us all, but in the long run skill will win out, the best player will [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=70&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>Rule of Thumb &#8211; avoid longshots</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-avoid-longshots/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-avoid-longshots/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:59:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rules of Thumb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-avoid-longshots/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the card table:  In poker you want to put yourself in a position where the bets you make have a positive expectation.  For example, you may only have a 1 in 5 chance of making the flush and winning the hand.  However, if the cost of seeing the last card is $100 and there [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=69&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>Rule of Thumb &#8211; don&#8217;t call, raise or fold</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-dont-call-raise-or-fold/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-dont-call-raise-or-fold/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:59:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rules of Thumb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-dont-call-raise-or-fold/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the card table:  If you have a good hand then you should be raising (as discussed above).  Although it is worth noting that there are exceptions, such as when you have a very strong hand which you want to conceal your strength to draw other players in and increase the final pot – called [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=68&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
		<media:content url="http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/9717140f5fafdeb787805074c8e132f8?s=96&#38;d=identicon" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>Rule 5 &#8211; expect a fight over the pre-nuptial agreement</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-5-expect-a-fight-over-the-pre-nuptial-agreement/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-5-expect-a-fight-over-the-pre-nuptial-agreement/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:57:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The "Rules" of Private Equity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-5-expect-a-fight-over-the-pre-nuptial-agreement/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There will always be a fight negotiating the pre-nuptial agreement. The letter that contained investment offer will only have covered the most basic terms. The offer letter may look good but the first site of the full investment agreement can be a shock. You must have experienced commercial and legal advice at this stage. Remember [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=67&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
		<media:content url="http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/9717140f5fafdeb787805074c8e132f8?s=96&#38;d=identicon" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Rule of Thumb &#8211; position matters</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-position-matters/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-position-matters/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:56:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rules of Thumb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-of-thumb-position-matters/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the card table:  Position in poker is very important and has a very specific meaning.  In poker the order in which bets are placed is always the same and starts clockwise form the dealer.  The best position is to be the last person to bet.  The worst position is to be first to bet.  [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=66&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
		<media:content url="http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/9717140f5fafdeb787805074c8e132f8?s=96&#38;d=identicon" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<item>
		<title>Rule 4 &#8211; you are not married until you are married</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-4-you-are-not-married-until-you-are-married/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-4-you-are-not-married-until-you-are-married/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:55:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The "Rules" of Private Equity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-4-you-are-not-married-until-you-are-married/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is no marriage until the ceremony is over.   The longed for investment offer (marriage proposal) finally arrives.  Typically a letter which outlines the principle terms of the investment, establishes a number of conditions, and requests a formal period of exclusivity.  Once this letter is signed and the terms accepted the investor will start spending [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=65&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
		<media:content url="http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/9717140f5fafdeb787805074c8e132f8?s=96&#38;d=identicon" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>Rule 3 &#8211; Don&#8217;t promise the business plan</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-3-dont-promise-the-business-plan/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-3-dont-promise-the-business-plan/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:51:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[The "Rules" of Private Equity]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/rule-3-dont-promise-the-business-plan/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The business plan can’t be part of your vows. The business plan is not a promise. Although some investors will try to hold you to the implied promise, it only maps of one of the many possible futures. It is just one of the means by which the investor will assess your judgement and your [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=64&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
		<media:content url="http://1.gravatar.com/avatar/9717140f5fafdeb787805074c8e132f8?s=96&#38;d=identicon" medium="image">
			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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		<title>Rule of Thumb &#8211; Keep watching and learning</title>
		<link>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/keep-watching-and-learning/</link>
		<comments>http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/keep-watching-and-learning/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 Oct 2007 13:48:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chris Blake</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Rules of Thumb]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://artofdecisions.wordpress.com/2007/10/29/keep-watching-and-learning/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At the card table: No matter how routinely the betting round seems to be unfolding never stop watching and thinking. Every bet, every pause, every gesture can carry information about your opponents hands. You can’t know what the hidden cards will be, but you can make assessments about the relative strength or weakness of your [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=artofdecisions.wordpress.com&amp;blog=1945376&amp;post=63&amp;subd=artofdecisions&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
	
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			<media:title type="html">Chris Blake</media:title>
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